Photovoltaics (PV) System Energy Forecast on the Basis of the Local Weather Forecast: Problems, Uncertainties and Solutions
Photovoltaics (PV) System Energy Forecast on the Basis of the Local Weather Forecast: Problems, Uncertainties and Solutions by Kristijan Brecl *OrcID andMarko TopičOrcID Laboratory of Photovoltaics and Optoelectronics—LPVO, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, University of Ljubljana, Tržaška 25, SI-1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia Published: 4 May 2018 Abstract When integrating a photovoltaic system into a smart zero-energy or energy-plus building, or just to lower the electricity bill by rising the share of the self-consumption in a private house, it is very important to have a photovoltaic power energy forecast for the next day(s). While the commercially available forecasting services might not meet the household prosumers interests due to the price or complexity we have developed a forecasting methodology that is based on the common weather forecast. Since the forecasted meteorological data does not include the solar irradiance information, but only the weather condition, the uncertainty of